More than you maybe think!
Let us say that you get monthly plans from R&D telling when product X is expected to be ready for sale. The plans are sliding all the time because of unforeseen problems. What do you do to start at the right time? You make a "Planned Time Map":
On a piece of linear diagram
paper, you plot for each new plan a point at
x = the time of the planning
y = the time R&D now believes project X is ready.
If you follow many projects you can plot them in the same diagram. The zero point of the axis must be the same date for both axis, and you draw a 45 degree line where the time on the two axis are identical: "The TPC = TP line".
After some plans you can start drawing an averaged line through the points. Where this line crosses the "The TPC = TP line" is the big day where the project is completed!
Why does this work and what are the traps?
The slope of the line is an indicator for the optimist factor of the planner. The more optimistic (s)he is, the steeper the line is. (For an average project the factor relative to an "everything will go smoothly" planning will be approx. pi = 3.14... - you may not believe it, but it is close to the truth! My measurements from a large number of projects indicates the order of magnitude 3.) A good planner will have (almost) horizontal lines.
There are two known traps: That the planner is replaced, or that management or the planner see your map and realize, that they have to be more realistic.
If you disagree
with these ideas - or have more relevant points +/-, please
e-mail me
!
(Ideas for "Tip of the month" subjects are welcome, too!)
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